Unlike the neighbouring states of Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh (or MP as it popularly called) does not suffer from an ‘image problem’. The province, named so for its very location in the heart of the country’s geography, is neither seen as a major player in national politics like UP nor does it enjoy the media attention comparable to the western province of Gujarat. But for a state with population larger than France, its relevance in national politics may finally be coming to a head.
Madhya Pradesh politics is dominated by the two national parties: BJP and Congress. For the past fifteen years, Madhya Pradesh has been governed by successive BJP governments. Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the current chief minister, has led the last thirteen of those. This make CM Chouhan one of the longest serving BJP chief Ministers right behind Raman Singh of neighbouring Chhattisgarh.
One and a half decade of ‘Mama Raj’
None can dispute the fact that MP was left in shambles by the time Congress CM Digvijaya Singh lost power in 2003. His ten-year reign completely broke the economy of MP and left the state in utter disarray. After almost two years of leadership crisis under Uma Bharti and then Babulal Gaur, BJP finally found a stable leader in the form of Shivraj Singh Chouhan who took office at the end of 2005.
A man of humble beginnings, Shivraj has expanded his influence across the state, branding himself a people’s leader. Popularly termed “Mama” (mother’s brother), CM Shivraj has successfully balanced the electoral politics of upper caste and OBC voters in a state where Hindus make up more than ninety per cent of the population.
During the course of his leadership, CM Shivraj has survived numerous crises and even managed to emerge from the shadows of ‘Vyapam affair’, a major admission and recruitment scam which allegedly involved corruption at the highest levels of government and bureaucracy.
And while it remains a miserable virtue of Indian politics that differences of ideology play no role in checking the conspicuous, almost prideful, acts of routine public corruption among its states and across all levels of political and administrative executive, the BJP government in Madhya Pradesh can surely claim some achievements to its credit.
First: Agriculture. MP has remained primarily an agricultural economy and food grain production has been the biggest driver of the state’s economic growth. Wheat production has been the biggest success story with state’s share reaching one-fifth of India’s total wheat production. And while the total wheat production more than tripled, the wheat yield per hectare has doubled since 2007. The state has also managed to double its milk production under CM Shivraj but remains behind UP and Rajasthan.
Second: Urban governance has shown a big improvement in MP under CM Shivraj. The state has charged ahead of UP, Bihar and Rajasthan on this count. Driving from Delhi towards Southern India, one can see the difference when passing through the cities of MP. Traffic lights, broad, well-lit streets, flyovers and walking path with service lanes — these are the hallmarks of urban revival in MP. Only this year, Bhopal and Indore were declared the cleanest cities in India. Pilgrim towns like Ujjain and Omkareshwar have seen a major infrastructure push. Sanitation and solid waste management have ensured that MP became the first state to provide 100% door to door garbage collection in urban bodies.
Energy & Tourism: Madhya Pradesh has taken long strides in energy production under CM Shivraj. Much credit for this also goes to Modi government at the centre which has supported many energy projects. At the same time, the state continues to heavily rely on coal and hydroelectricity to meet its energy needs. Madhya Pradesh is yet to break in the top five solar energy producing states of India but it has shown decent improvement. Shivraj government also tapped the tourism potential of MP to some extent. After an initial success, tourism sector growth slowed down in last few years and is now mostly dependent on domestic tourism. For a state blessed with some magnificent natural and man made destinations, MP does not even figure among the top ten States in number of foreign tourist arrivals.
And that’s pretty much sums up the achievements despite one and a half decade in power for BJP. As for the failures, the list is far long.
Decades of Disarray
CM Shivraj’s government has been unsuccessful in maintaining proper law and order in the state. Public safety has worsened every passing year. MP tops India in reported rapes and witnessed a huge surge in crimes against women. More than 5300 rape cases were registered in 2017. The massive surge in child rapes followed by state wide protests forced the government to enact law for death sentence for rape of girls below 12 years. Poor law and order has also deterred tourism and investment in the state. There was an overall vacancy of 16,751 personnel in police force as of June 2016.
MP is among the worst performers in healthcare and education. Poor social development indicators speak for themselves. Niti Aayog’s (Government of India’s premier public policy think tank) latest health index ranks Madhya Pradesh 17th among 21 states of India. The state ranked 16th among the 19 Indian states on Human Development Index (HDI). Same dataset also shows that more than 40% of children in MP remain stunted.
CAG report has found that MP could not attain the goals for Infant and Maternal Mortality Rates lagging far behind the achievements of other States. Despite the tall claims of Shivraj government, MP still has one of the highest infant mortality rate in India at 47 per one thousand births. This is close to the numbers in war-torn Yemen. There is a huge shortfall of rural health centres in the state leading to thousands of avoidable deaths every year. CAG report also details that half the Primary Health Clinics (PHCs) in MP function without any doctor. Around 17 per cent of the MP population is still uncovered by any ambulance facility.
Madhya Pradesh Economic Survey 2017–18 shows that literacy rate in MP remains below the national average and more than 8 per cent of girls remain out of school. During 2010–16, more than 10 lakh children left schooling after primary stage. Despite being a power surplus state, almost 96,000 government schools lack access to power. The entire education sector in the state has been outsourced to the private sector. More than half the schools in MP are now run by private players.
The latest CAG Audit has also revealed the stunning failure of Shivraj government in fulfilling the objective of universal elementary education even after six years since the passage of the RTE Act: a socioeconomic catastrophe whose effects will only multiply into the next generation of students from educationally-backward households. Less than one-fifth of the funds meant for Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (Government of India’s flagship programme for universalisation of elementary education) has been spent by the state government. Nothing encapsulates better for the broken machinery of the state in Madhya Pradesh as the fact that the government data on enrolment of children in elementary education was not found reliable by the CAG audit.
Poor rule of law, education, and healthcare has directly impacted employment and economic growth of citizens in MP. As per the latest MP Economic Survey, of the total 11.24 lakh educated unemployed registered with state unemployment bureau in 2017, just 422 applicants were given the job. MP continues to lag behind other states when it comes to inviting Foreign Direct Investment. Even cities like Indore have not witnesses industry revival despite proximity to Mumbai. MP has been ranked fourth poorest in the latest Multi-Dimensional Poverty Index while its district of Alirajpur has been declared the poorest in India.
Fiscal deficit has almost doubled in last three years of Shivraj government, almost reaching five per cent of the state’s GDP. The increase in per-capita income has been marginal and remains just around Rs. 56,000 — roughly one third of states like Maharashtra. Most of the government schemes fall flat on the ground.
Bhopal to Delhi?
The widening rural-urban divide in MP has kept the majority of state’s population far from the fruits of development. The science of statistics does not quite capture the extent of poverty in a state where almost seventy percent of the population live in rural areas, home to India’s largest adivasi population. This rural population that both BJP and Congress are targeting for election campaigns struggles for food, health and basic education despite highways passing right by their villages. A consolidation of votes among the millions of rural poor and SC/ST groups will be enough to stop CM Shivraj’s from claiming the top job.
CM Shivraj is no different from ousted Chief Ministers like Akhilesh Yadav of UP or Siddaramaiah of Karnataka. In Madhya Pradesh, BJP under PM Modi cannot make a scapegoat out of any Nehru or 50 year of Congress misrule. BJP has an equal share in maintaining the poverty and backwardness of MP.
The only hope for CM Shivraj is the name of Prime Minister Modi who remains popular in Madhya Pradesh. A wide section of voters are well aware that rejection of CM Shivraj would have ripple effect on national politics. In MP’s bipolar politics dominated by national parties, national issues remain relevant. This is where BJP has the upper hand over a Congress suffering under the internal quibbling of local elites like Kamalnath, Digvijay, and Jyotiraditya Scindia.
The New Delhi-Bhopal Shatabdi Express is widely touted as the fastest train in India. Both BJP and Congress are hoping this state election to become their ticket to Delhi next year. CM Shivraj is well aware of his shortcomings and has launched ‘Samriddh (Prosperous) Madhya Pradesh’ alongside the usual media blitzkrieg that is now part of most assembly elections in India. For BJP retaining the ‘heartland’ state of MP is crucial. For Congress, a win even by close margin would be no less than a ‘Sanjeevani booti’ in its attempts to forge a nationwide alliance against PM Modi for the upcoming general elections.
Going by PM Modi’s logic of ‘Vikas’ (development), the people of MP should not hesitate to reject BJP in the state. Or will the poor of Madhya Pradesh sacrifice their future for the sake of PM Modi?
